On Tuesday, April 22, a terrorist attack was carried out in Pahalgam, a scenic valley in Indian Illegal Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIJO&K). The attack killed at least 26 tourists. As per the Indian media, an obscure and previously unknown group called The Resistant Front (TRF), that has links with Lashker-e-Taiba, took the responsibility of the attack. The Indian authorities suggest the external involvement for cross-border terrorism pointing fingers at Pakistan. Such claims have also been made on the past incidents including Palwama, Mumbai and Uri attacks and others.
In the wake of this development, the Indian leadership has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty signed between India-Pakistan in 1960. This Indian action has no legal right and justification. As rightly pointed out by Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi, Executive Director, Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad, “this treaty cannot be suspended unilaterally, as it has been signed by several parties whose concurrence is required. Moreover, there is no connection between the treaty and such an incident of terrorism.” He further argued that “Pakistan should therefore approach the World Bank to reject the Indian move to withdraw from the treaty. If need be, the matter could be taken up at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or even the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), as the Indian action could cut-off the water to millions of farmers in the affected area.”
Moreover, following the meeting of the Indian Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) on Wednesday, declared number of stringent diplomatic measures against Pakistan, accusing Islamabad under the presumption that the attack was carried from across the border. It decided to send a strong message to Pakistan. The meeting also resolved to take a series of actions. Firstly, the integrated check post at Attari was shut down with immediate effect. Secondly, Pakistani nationals were prohibited from travel to India, under the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) visa exemptions scheme. Thirdly, it also decided to reduce the Pakistani diplomatic staff and withdrawal of several Indian officials from Islamabad. Défense, military, naval and air advisor in Pakistan’s High Commission in New Delhi were declared “Persona Non Grata” and ordered to leave India within a week. According to Dr Bilal Zubair, Director Research at CISS, “this immediate and reckless response by India sounds irrational and groundless and would not help in identifying the perpetrators of the attack.” He further added that “Indian statements are based on mere assumptions as Pakistan has nothing to do with terrorism, which is an equally concerning phenomenon for Pakistan, as well. Hence, the statement of Indian Prime Minister Narendar Modi on India’s response are irresponsible and would cause unwanted escalation. Even though Pakistan should be cautious but in case of any misadventure, Pakistan reserves all the rights to undertake necessary measures. Also to not let India make any excuse for executing military actions of any dimension/level or to start a conflict against Pakistan. Any attempt to reset the escalation ladder warrant equal or greater response from Pakistan.”
Such behaviour from India is not surprising given its history of misconduct and misbehaviour with Pakistan, following terrorist incidents on its soil. It has consistently reacted impulsively, without grounded evidence, and has escalated diplomatic conflict with Islamabad. In some instances, the situations led to physical attacks such as Pulwama incident. On the contrary, Pakistan, as a responsible nuclear weapon state, has always handled these issues with caution, avoiding escalation even though Pakistan has serious concerns about Indian involvement in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) with well founded evidence, of India funding terrorist organization such as Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). The recent Jaffar Express hijacking incident in Balochistan, claimed by BLA, further highlights these concerns. Nonetheless, Pakistan has refrained from taking punitive actions against India on both the diplomatic and military fronts.
Pakistan’s Foreign and Deputy Prime Minister Mr Ishaq Dar, criticised Indian response as immature and reckless, stating that “India failed to provide evidence and demonstrated the lack of seriousness in its approach which created an unnecessary hype.” Any confrontation between India and Pakistan could escalate beyond 2019 standoff. Pakistan has denied any role in Pahalgam attack. Its top security brass met on Thursday to deliberate upon India’s sharp response and to formulate comprehensive policy action to the aggressive measures announced by New Delhi. In response to India’s hasty actions, Pakistan decided in its national security meeting to cut-off trade with India and ordered the closure of airspaces for the Indian aircrafts with the immediate effect. Other actions regarding diplomats were also announced. Conclusively, the international community needs to play a serious role in mitigating this crisis between India and Pakistan. Not surprisingly, US President Donald Trump’s administration has already extended support to India against Pakistan without ascertaining the facts. At this critical juncture, the international community including the US must play a proactive role in locating the perpetrators and pressurizing India to not to take any action that threatens the delicate security of the region.
Dr Rahat Iqbal
Dr Rahat Iqbal is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
