The world is watching closely the posture of India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pahalgam incident. The nuclear-armed India and Pakistan are looking eyeball to eyeball once again in the aftermath of the April 22, 2025, armed assault which killed 26 tourists visiting the Pahalgam district in the Indian Illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) region. In a hasty response, India has pointed fingers at Pakistan by claiming two of the attackers belonged to Pakistan without providing any proof of these allegations. India has also unilaterally withdrawn from the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) of 1960, which distributes water between India and Pakistan, and downgraded diplomatic ties. Whereas, Pakistan has responded by closing its airspace for Indian carriers, stopping trade, and considering withdrawing from the Shimla Agreement of 1971 (a treaty to negotiate bilateral disputes). While the international community has sympathised with India, the world leaders have adopted a cautious response regarding the Indian allegations, the reason being a recurrent pattern of India blaming Pakistan for any terrorist activity inside Indian Occupied Kashmir. The big powers and the United Nations have given a measured response to the Pahalgam incident. The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, has urged both countries to show ‘maximum restraint’, whereas China has pledged support for Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, and Russia has condemned the incident. Whereas, the United States has called for a ‘responsible solution’ to the evolving situation. Iran and Turkey have offered their good office to mediate in this regard.
India’s accusations against Pakistan have not been entertained by the international community, as anticipated by India. There are three major reasons for this reaction.
Firstly, the absence of any proof regarding the alleged involvement and PM Modi’s rhetoric of punishing the culprits and raising the safe heavens accusations is a dangerous proposition. In 2019, Indian surgical strikes on an uninhabited site in Balakot in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province were responded by Pakistan through an aerial strike bringing down an Indian MiG aircraft and capturing its pilot. Retrospectively, Pakistan’s defence minister Khawaja Asif has stated that any Indian incursion into Pakistan would be responded by all the necessary measures. While India has tested anti-ship and anti-surface cruise missiles in the Arabian Sea, there are reports that Pakistan has also announced plans to conduct a surface-to-surface missile test off the Karachi coast. Viewing the precarious developments in South Asia, the international community recognizes that the strategic stability in South Asia hinges on a balanced approach. Despite huge economic relations with India, any favour to India’s unverifiable claims can destabilize the strategic environment, which has uncontrollable fallouts for the region and beyond. Thus, any irresponsible act by India to conduct surgical strikes and get away would lead to an unforeseen response.
Secondly, India’s unilateral withdrawal from the IWT) contrary to the practices of the established rule-based international order. The suspension of the IWT is being viewed as an attempt to pulverise the inviolable agreement and violate the international agreed-upon norms. The protected internationally arbitrated agreement, like the IWT, upholds the foundation of the post-World War II established international order. The world is already in awe of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, while Israel has banned the United Nations Relief and Work Agency for Palestine, UNRWA, with impunity, while withdrawing from the UN Human Rights Council. Israeli unilateral withdrawal from the UNRWA is tantamount to a breach of the UN Charter. India, in hindsight, has followed the Israeli footsteps – used the Pahalgam incident to undermine the internationally binding framework and international norm of arbitration and dilute the sanctity of international institutions such as the World Bank.
Thirdly, India is rallying with the big powers, especially the US to use Pahalgam to attack Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi has called more than a dozen world leaders to garner support for any military action. For the US, presently, India-Pakistan escalation does not serve its regional interests. Amidst a tariff war against China, investing to end the Russian-Ukraine War in Europe, and continuing turmoil in the Middle East, the US is less likely to support India’s claims on Pahalgam. President Trump’s lack of focus on South Asia is also exhibited by the fact that a US ambassador to India has yet to be appointed. Moreover, the US would oppose India’s amplification of Pahalgam as it will shift the US strategic interest from China to the India-Pakistan rivalry in the region. Therefore, the US would refrain from any attempt to embroil itself in a South Asian strategic parlay and would require India to stay focused on a strategic alignment towards countering China. Keeping in view the post-Pahalgam evolving scenario, South Asia’s delicate strategic stability depends on the responsible behaviour of nuclear India and Pakistan. Traumatic incidents like Pahalgam pose a significant challenge to a stable South Asia. Pakistan itself has been hit hard by terrorism recently and is still fighting a war to root out the menace. Pakistan’s offer for a neutral investigation into the Incident by countries like China and Russia, or any mutually agreed-upon countries, seems a reasonable and measured approach that can help towards reaching much-needed de-escalation in the region.
Dr Bilal Zubair is Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
