The global order is entering a phase of profound transition. The return of President Donald Trump to the White House marks not just a shift in leadership but a recalibration of American engagement with the world — one defined by strategic retrenchment, economic nationalism, and transactional diplomacy. For Pakistan, this evolving landscape carries implications that extend far beyond trade or alliances — reaching into the core of its strategic calculus and national resilience.
Strategic stability, already fragile, now leans disproportionately on deterrence as the arms control leg weakens. The risk is not hypothetical — it is structural. A fall may not come with a bang but through the gradual erosion of strategic balance, credibility, and perception.
Today’s multipolar world is not defined by equilibrium but by simultaneous contestations across multiple domains — conventional, cyber, maritime, and increasingly, artificial intelligence. While the United States seeks to constrain China’s rise using both military posturing and trade coercion, the resultant volatility is beginning to reshape the strategic environment for powers like Pakistan.
Amid this flux, the United States continues to position India as a Net Security Provider in the Indian Ocean Region — a move aimed at containing China but one that disregards the destabilising impact it has on South Asia’s fragile deterrence logic. India’s access to dual-use technologies, missile tracking networks, ballistic missile defence systems, and advanced ISR capabilities is steadily increasing under this asymmetric partnership.
This tilt has strategic and narrative consequences. Indian military modernisation is framed as stabilising, while Pakistan’s deterrent posture — proportionate, tested, and responsibly managed — is often painted as escalatory. The resulting narrative asymmetry undermines crisis deterrence, legitimises India’s coercive doctrines, and narrows the space for Pakistani strategic signalling.
Pakistan thus faces a layered and persistent strategic challenge: it must resist the pull of arms racing while preserving the credibility of its deterrent posture; it must sustain the dynamism of Full Spectrum Deterrence in the face of a technological apartheid and proliferation regime that selectively empowers India; and it must defend its strategic narrative in an international environment where even calibrated and defensive responses are cast as provocations.
These challenges are not limited to land and air domains. Maritime dynamics are evolving rapidly — and often without adequate scrutiny. The U.S.–India strategic convergence, reinforced by QUAD and AUKUS, is transforming the Indian Ocean into a zone of surveillance, forward deployment, and contested access. Pakistan’s maritime space — operationally, diplomatically, and technologically — is increasingly compressed.
CPEC, Gwadar, freedom of navigation, undersea stability, and energy transit are all critical to Pakistan’s national calculus. Yet naval doctrines are being redefined by AI-enabled systems, autonomous platforms, and deep-sea intelligence — often ahead of any shared rules of engagement or crisis management protocols.
Pakistan must not only modernise its fleet, but also expand maritime diplomacy, participate in arms control dialogues on emerging technologies, and advocate for regional frameworks that can manage escalation risks at sea. This is not a luxury; it is a strategic imperative.
Diplomatically, Pakistan must recalibrate its bandwidth. Engagement with the United States is necessary — not as a concession, but as a matter of interest. At the same time, Pakistan must consolidate its strategic partnership with China and expand cooperative avenues with West Asia, Russia, and Central Asia to enhance its influence.
In parallel, Pakistan must lead in norm-building on emerging military technologies. Its multilateral diplomacy credentials provide a strong foundation to shape discourse on military AI, autonomous weapons, and space governance — areas where normative gaps pose direct threats to stability.
Equally vital is the need for strategic communication. As global narratives shift, Pakistan must actively counter disinformation and defend the logic of its deterrent posture. Silence or ambiguity only invites distortion. A clear, credible, and confident narrative is essential to safeguarding strategic legitimacy.
In sum, the shifting global order presents turbulence — but also a narrow window for repositioning. The task before Pakistan is not simply to adapt, but to assert — with clarity, competence, and credible signalling. The multipolar world will not reward caution. It will recognise those who engage purposefully, lead normatively, and signal strength responsibly.
Brig (R) Dr Zahir Kazmi is the Arms Control Advisor at the Strategic Plans Division.
