The general election in India is currently taking place and will conclude by 1st June 2024. With its recent landslide victories in state elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be poised for success in the ongoing national elections. Various pre-election opinion polls have projected a clear victory for the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Considering the Indian strategic mindset, this article posits if there could be a chance for peace in South Asia during Modi’s third term tenure.
PM Modi’s previous two terms were marked by securitization of Indian foreign policy, extracting benefits from other states while taking less responsibility in return, promoting a hardcore Indian stance on various issues, with little room for engaging positively with its neighbors, overemphasizing the promotion of Hindutva ideology, and shrinking space for religious minorities, particularly Indian Muslims. Therefore, India’s so-called secularism and diversity are in serious jeopardy. In fact, since the BJP-led government came to power in 2014, the false hope of “making India great again” and the expansion of India (Akhand Bharat) have been rising among Hindu nationals and religious followers.
In the regional context, PM Modi has adopted a muscular policy. India perceives itself as a net-security provider in the region. PM Modi, on August 9, 2021, emphasized the importance of security cooperation in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) during a high-level discussion on maritime security. Even in September 2021, at a launching event of the Indian Ocean Initiative at Carnegie Endowment, India’s Ambassador to the US, Taranjit Singh Sandhu, stated that India claims to be the net security provider that would rescue states in crisis amid climate, economic, and security issues. Thus, in India’s view, the phrase “net security provider” suggests that India can both protect /pursue its vested interests and provide security to other regional states. In this role, it sees itself as having a responsibility to decide and act on regional affairs assertively, ignoring the sensitivities of other smaller nations in South Asia.
In the bilateral context with Pakistan, India’s relations with the country have been at a historic low under the Modi-led government. PM Modi followed a policy of non-engagement with Pakistan and labeled it only with the issue of terrorism. From the policy of isolating Pakistan internationally and engaging in military adventurism during the Balakot incident, there has also been the worrying event of BrahMos nuclear-capable missile landing in Pakistan in March 2022. At the same time, the arms buildup by India has gathered pace during both his terms. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India has remained the largest arms importer throughout 2018-2022.
In the current election period, while Modi is projected to claim victory for the third term, he still finds his extremist policies and actions of the last two terms insufficient for a clear victory. He has resorted to Islamophobic and anti-Pakistan narratives during his election campaigns even though he has followed a policy to minimize the Pakistan factor in Indian foreign policy over the years. As the momentum of Indian elections is building up, so is the intensity of Modi’s anti-Pakistan jingoism.
PM Modi, in a rally in Gujrat, confirmed extra-judicial killings in Pakistan by saying that India under him doesn’t send dossiers but kills them on their home turf. In his nuclear rhetoric, he underestimated nuclear deterrence, Modi stated that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are of low quality. Modi has also targeted Pakistan on Azad Jammu and Kashmir and the overall state of India’s bilateral relations with Pakistan. While targeting Indian Muslims, Modi has termed the minority as “infiltrators” with no rights to the resources in India.
With this kind of hyper-nationalism and attack on his opposition parties for being soft on Pakistan, PM Modi is killing any remaining chances of reviving bilateral relations with Pakistan. If Modi wins the third term, talking to Pakistan for bilateral cooperation will be seen as a clear departure from his election promises by his supporters. If he loses and the Congress-led alliance comes to power, they would also be under immense pressure from Modi’s verbal attacks for being nicer and softer to Pakistan. Due to this, Congress may also be reluctant to open up with Pakistan but it may not over the perception built by Modi.
However, to make peace with Pakistan, Modi would have to mend his policies by stopping domesticating India’s relations with Pakistan for his domestic political gains, toning down his anti-Pakistan and Islamophobic narratives, thinking of the region, stopping state-sponsored terrorism and killings in other countries, finding the solution of issues through talks, and most importantly clamping down on Hindutva politics. He also needs to refrain from carrying out false-flag operations against Islamabad to create and justify military tensions with Pakistan. Peace and stability in South Asia, particularly between Pakistan and India, cannot be achieved through a unilateral approach, and toning down political rhetoric may be a first step toward it.
Samran Ali
Mr Samran Ali is Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
Dr Rahat Iqbal
Dr Rahat Iqbal is Associate Director Research at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
