In 2024 national elections, BJP and its allies have won a narrow majority leading to the formation of government for the third time by Narendra Modi. Opinions regarding the future of relations between India and Pakistan under Modi 3.0 vary. Some analysts believe that Narendra Modi, emboldened by a third term, can pursue a more assertive approach towards Pakistan. Some others also point out the possibility that Modi may initiate concrete efforts to improve relations with Pakistan to cement a so-called legacy. The picture would soon become apparent in the near future on how Modi would react to the trade overtures by the incumbent Pakistani government. The notion that Modi may leave a legacy by “resolving” the Kashmir dispute once and for all warrants closer attention. Past and present BJP and Modi’s behaviour can help us to better predict and prepare for the future.
The relations between the two states strained after the India changed constitutional provisions about illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir in 2019. In response to that, Pakistan downgraded its relations with India; both states recalled their high commissioners and suspended cross-border and across the Line of Control (LoC) trade. Indian decision to revoke Article 370 of its constitution was declared as an illegal unilateral step by Pakistan in violation of United Nations resolutions on Kashmir. All cultural exchanges and the bus and train services were also suspended, and the relations hit an all-time low. Subsequently, the then Pakistani political leadership linked up any dialogue with India on reversing the decision regarding Article 370.
After 1977, this was the first time the general election has synced up in both countries. This can give governments more time to make long-term policies before an election in any of the states. The new government in Islamabad has already shown interest in restoring relations between neighboring states. In a statement, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said that the government is seriously considering reviving trade with India. Similarly, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif mentioned in his press talk a hope for improving relations with India after its general elections.
These statements from senior ministers show that Pakistan is seriously thinking about improving relations with its bigger neighbor. The current government and military establishment also appear to be on the same page. Moreover, public opinion on India inside Pakistan has softened, given the socio-economic and people-to-people linkages. In 2023, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari went to Goa to participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting. This was the first visit from a senior Pakistani official to India in the past twelve years. Pakistan cricket team also went to India to participate in the international cricket World Cup in 2023.
These actions by the Pakistani side show its interest in reviving relations with its eastern neighbor, and the ball is in India’s court. The new government – most likely Modi – must adopt new ways of improving relationship with Pakistan. Recently, Indian Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar lashed out at Pakistan during a conference in Singapore, saying, “This is a very sustained almost industry-level assembly line of people whose job is to do bad things at night, there is a concerted effort to produce this violence with the intent of pressuring your neighbor and India would not overlook terrorism.” During the visit of former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal, the statements by Jaishankar regarding Pakistan were also hostile. Jaishankar called Bilawal, the “spokesperson of a terrorism industry,” and that “victims of terrorism do not sit together with its perpetrators to discuss terrorism.” Jaishankar tries to play the role of a hawk in Indian foreign policymaking.
Despite a hostile environment, Pakistan and India reached a ceasefire agreement in February 2021 through backdoor channels, that has now entered its fourth year. Both states have an appetite for a peace process, but with hawks dominating the Indian policymaking circles, it seems challenging to commence meaningful engagement.
There is also a possibility that the latest statements by Indian ministers – that they will enter Pakistan to kill terrorists if the need arises – is a political rhetoric to satisfy the domestic audience during an election time because Pakistan bashing attracts public support in India. For instance, Modi went to great lengths in the last election to cash it on the Pulwama-Balakot crisis, so that such statements can be considered only for domestic point scoring.
The primary cause of the downgrading of relations by both countries is the Indian decisions on Kashmir, and to start the peace process again, the onus is on India. Pakistan has shown its willingness, and the Modi 3.0 government has three pathways in front of it in its relations with Pakistan: the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The ugly path can be that India carries on with its current hawkish tendencies, replies to any peace negotiations with allegations of terrorism, and carries on with its assassination spree in foreign countries, including Pakistan. The bad path is that Modi turns to the negotiation table only for media publicity and not conflict resolution. This will portray Modi’s image as one struggling hard to ensure peace and stability in the region, but this will not yield any positive outcome. A good path would be for India to sit on the negotiating table and both countries take small concrete steps towards better relations.
A good starting point can be that India reciprocates Pakistan’s gesture of goodwill by sending its cricket team for the upcoming Champions trophy in 2025. During the Asia Cup of 2023, the Indian cricket team refused to come to Pakistan, but Pakistan still went to India for the World Cup. Indian decision to send its cricket team would be a positive step, and if they refuse to send it, then that can disrupt champions’ trophy program, irking Pakistani public. Other steps that can be taken are opening trade across the LoC, forming working committees on shared non-traditional threats like climate change, and at the same time holding talks on the Kashmir and terrorism issue. Instead of de-hyphenating problems as a way forward, concurrent discussion on different issues in appropriate working committees can be a meaningful path to follow. If Modi wants to build a foreign policy legacy, the only path to follow is the good path. No magic wand can resolve the issues overnight, and only with honesty and political will can there be a beacon of hope for the region.
Mr Abdul Moiz Khan is Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
