The Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir territory (IIOJK) has been without an elected government since 2018 when New Delhi dissolved the Kashmir assembly arbitrarily. The upcoming election is the first, since the abrogation of Article 370, in August 2019, which revoked the special status of IIJOK. The recent election is an attempt to convince the people of the region that New Delhi is once again serious about the sovereignty of the Kashmiri people. However, in reality, Modi’s government is only conducting this exercise because they believe that this can assist them in repressing the new wave of freedom struggle commenced by the Kashmiri people since the abrogation of articles 370 and 35-A. The article will assess two things; who will dominate the polls and secondly can New Delhi succeed in bringing back normalcy in the region through this exercise of elections.
The polls are being conducted in three stages, from September 18 to October 01. Results will be announced on October 04. The elections will be conducted on a total of ninety seats. These seats are distributed in the two regions, Jammu and Kashmir. Jammu region has a total of forty-three constituencies, while the Kashmir region has forty-seven . It is to be noted that Jammu is Hindu-dominated while Kashmir is a Muslim-majority area. 23.27 lac new voters will participate in this election, which includes 5.66 lac young, 11.76 lac men, and 11.51 lac women.
In this election, various parties and individuals are participating. The prominent ones include Mehbooba Mufti’s Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party (J&K PDP), Farooq Abdullah’s Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), All India National Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Sheikh Abdul Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), and Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party.
Regarding alliances, the BJP will contest the election alone without forming any formal alliance with any of the parties. Instead, the BJP will support independent representatives in Kashmir Valley constituencies where it will not run its own candidates. It is also confirmed by Omar Abdullah who alleged that the BJP has made a deal with certain strong independent candidates. Similarly, the J&K PDP will fight the election alone. Meanwhile, India’s primary opposition party, the Congress party, has allied itself with the National Conference, the largest pro-India Kashmiri political group, to seek votes jointly.
It is also pertinent to see the position of the BJP in the current scenario. It is highly unlikely for the BJP to secure majority seats in the Kashmir Valley. The people of the region have already given their verdict in the recent General elections in which BJP lost in all constituencies of the Kashmir Valley during the 2024 general elections. In addition, the BJP also did not win in the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency that was split between the areas of Kashmir and Jammu region. Therefore, to avoid the same fate again, it is reported that the BJP has decided to only contest from 19 constituencies of the region.
Whereas, in the Hindu-majority Jammu region, it is expected that the BJP will secure majority seats. The party also performed well in the recent general elections and won both seats. However, it will be difficult for the BJP to clean-sweep the region. Jammu’s five districts; Doda, Poonch, Rajouri, Kishtwar, and Ramban — are Muslim majority areas. In these areas, the majority of the Muslim vote will not land in the BJP’s basket, which will reduce its overall seat count.
Given the history and the current dynamics, it can be predicted that the Congress-led alliance will win more seats; nevertheless, the BJP has a backup plan if it loses the election. This is evident from the Indian government’s recent measure, which significantly increased the powers of the lieutenant governor (LG), a position nominated by New Delhi. The recent move granted the LG extensive administrative and security powers, including control over the police, the transfer and posting of civil servants, authorization for prosecution, and other public order issues. This decision will seriously impact the decision-making authority of the newly elected government because it will have no teeth.
The main question is whether the Indian government will be able to bring back normalcy in the region. It will be tough for New Delhi because the action of 5th August has made a deep scar in the memories of the Kashmiri people. Before August 5, many people used to stress to others that they should trust the central government sitting in the capital. These include leaders like Mehbooba Mufti and Farooq Abdullah and their supporters. However, even they turned against the central government after it had ended the so-called statehood given to IIOJK under the Indian constitution.
Since the abrogation of Article 370, a new wave of indigenous armed struggle has emerged in the IIOJK particularly led by the young generation who are fighting the occupation forces for their independence. This is happening because the Indian occupation has given them no other choice. The Internet was shut down on repeated occasions making it the number one region with most Internet blackouts. Moreover, Cellular services were also restricted. This curtailed their connectivity to the outside world. They were not allowed to protest. People were abducted and tortured for raising their voices against the occupant forces. They were not even allowed to render their Jumma prayers. These brutal violations of human rights had to result in only one way: an indigenous armed struggle.
In Jammu and Kashmir, almost 200 security personnel have been killed since 2020. The interesting aspect is the rise of indigenous struggle in the Jammu region. In Jammu alone, there have been 33 major incidents tied to the indigenous armed struggle. The attacks happened in the Jammu division’s Rajouri, Poonch, Doda, Kathua, Udhampur, Reasi, and other places. This development is a new normal because Muslim tribal groups in Jammu, such as the Gujjars and the Paharis, are not cooperating with the occupation forces as they used to do in the past. The rationale behind this is the revocation of Article 370 and the continued brutalities against innocent Muslims. For instance, last year three young boys from the Gujjar community were brutally tortured to death by the Indian army. This is one such example and there remain many more that are intensifying the indigenous struggle. To sum it up, the BJP will likely lose the upcoming provisional assembly elections in the IIOJK. In addition, the wishful thinking of the decision-makers sitting in the South Block is away from ground realities. The wishful thinking is based on the premise that giving them the right to vote will bring back normalcy in the region. However, this will not happen because the people of the region are now aware of all the tricks and rhetoric that the Indian government has used to trap them. Therefore, they will continue their struggle and fight for their rights till they gain independence.
Mahnoor Saghir is an MPhil Scholar from the International Relations Department at the National Defense University, Islamabad. Her research areas include; Emerging Technologies (Hypersonic & UAVs), the Russia-Ukraine Conflict, and the Security Dynamics of South Asia.
