Without providing any evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam attack, India launched a brrage of missile strikes on nine sites in Pakistan, including Bahawalpur & Muridke in Punjab; Kotli, Bagh and Muzaffarabad, in AJK in the dead of night, pushing South Asia into a war situation. Despite having conventional asymmetry, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has given India a befitting response, shooting down five Indian fighter jets including its three French-made Rafales, one MiG-29, one Su-30 fighter and a Heron surveillance drone. The interception and neutralization of the Harop drone, and the shooting of Rafale and Su-30 about 17 miles from the Line of control (LOC) highlight Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) expeditious response to Indian missile strikes.
The Rafale, a 4.5 generation highly advanced multirole fighter jet which is capable of performing interdiction and aerial reconnaissance, is one of the reasons for India’s muscle flexing in the region. It is not a stealth aircraft; however, while detecting the fighter jet it is a small radar cross section and tail fin that puzzles its adversaries in the skies. Rafale jets have long been touted as a game-changer for the Indian Air Force (IAF), boosting the country’s technological edge over its regional adversaries especially Pakistan. However, the successful shooting of Rafale jets belied New Delhi’s high operational efficacy and the perception of India’s air superiority, highlighting loopholes in the strategic deployment of India’s new assets. MiG-29, a twin-engine fighter jet that is specifically designed for aerial combat, has notable features like advanced avionics and radar systems that allow dogfighting and interception. However, swift and timely response from PAF against MIG-29 disabled India’s air tactics. Likewise, the downing of India’s primary frontline fighter, SU-30 which is known for its maneuverability, indicates flaws in India’s operational preparedness and exposes IAF’s vulnerability to PAF’s sophisticated air defense mechanism. On the Contrary, the PAF has historically shown mastery in multiple domains during its aerial engagements with the IAF. Starting from acquisition, employment, strategy to the execution of the plan, the PAF has outshone the IAF in various domains. The excellence of PAF was well recognized by all quarters when it defeated IAF on the ground and in the air during the first full-scale war with India in 1965. In 2019, the IAF conducted airstrikes in Balakot in response to the Pulwama incident, accusing Pakistan of its involvement in a terrorist attack. The following day, the PAF retaliated with strike in Rajouri sector of Jammu, making India lose its MIG-21 along with capturing its Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. This time, Pakistan has responded with its best available war machine, J-10 C, which is a multirole fighter aircraft with exceptional air combat capabilities. With the shooting of Rafale fighter jets, shares of the French company, Dassault Aviation, sharply declined by 6 percent. PAF response to Indian airstrikes displays its enhanced air combat capabilities.
According to the Indian Ministry of Defense, these strikes named – “Operation Sindoor” – were an outcome of India’s intent to punish the perpetrators of the Pahalgam attack. However, Pakistan which has denied any involvement in Pahalgam, termed these strikes as “Unprovoked.” Till today, India has not provided details about any group it suspects has carried out the attack, and the perpetrators of Pahalgam attack still remain unclear.
Since Tuesday, 6th May, 2025, Indian officials were involved in drills and exercises. This critical act of the show of strength sends a clear message to the international community and global observers that India is instigating a conventional war under a nuclear shadow. However, the reluctance of the international community to get involved in the latest dispute between Pakistan and India could lead to latest escalation to an all –out war. Pakistan had shown maximum restraint in its response and remained committed to act as a responsible nuclear state.
Nevertheless, under the weight of the Hindutva mindset, on 9th May, 2025, India fired air-to-surface missiles at three air bases in Rawalpindi, Chakwal, Shorkot as well as Rahim Yar Khan airport, normalizing escalation between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Pakistan termed missile strikes as an ‘’act of war,’’ authorizing its military to take corresponding military action against India.
In response, Pakistan launched military campaign “Operation Bunyanum Marsoos ” after four days of consecutive Indian strikes, targeting wide swaths of Indian territory including military bases in Udhampur, Pathankot, drangyari,Nagrota, Adampur and Buj air base, As the escalation veered from the disputed state of Kashmir towards the brink of nuclear escalation , the United States, shifting from its previous stance of non-interference, brokered a ceasefire between Pakistan and India. Earlier the US Vice President, JD Vance, initially remarked on 8 May, 2025 that latest escalation between Pakistan and India is none of the business of the US. The situation changed after Indian missile strikes hit Pakistan’s Nur khan Air base in Rawalpindi, fearing potential nuclear escalation between the arch rivals, Pakistan and India. Nur khan Base serves as key transport and refueling hub for the PAF, lying just kilometres away from the Strategic Plans Division- the command overseeing Pakistan’s estimated 170 nuclear warheads. Before the situation became irreversible between Pakistan and India, the United States announced immediate ceasefire between the two states, offering assistance for resolving Kashmir issue. Though efforts of President Trump for ceasefire deserves recognition and the 2025 ceasefire is considered as a notable diplomatic achievement for the US; yet the success of this ceasefire rests upon a fragile equilibrium. In absence of institutions and channels of communication for resolution of key disputes between Pakistan and India, peace and stability of South Asia would remain at stake. Without addressing structural issues like dispute of Kashmir, the region would remain locked in cyclical deterrence breakdowns, with vulnerability for future escalation.
Ms Nawal Nawaz is Research Assistant at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
