In the era of technological warfare, states are progressively turning towards militarization of space to ensure their security. The rising investments in space warfare infrastructure have raised concerns about the impact of space weaponization for global strategic stability.
The distinct feature of the technological domains of warfare, especially outer space, is their ability to destabilize the prevailing structures of deterrence and present unique challenges in maintaining in-domain and cross domain deterrence among states. Cyber warfare and space warfare both pose challenges related to attribution, ambiguous thresholds, and uncertainty regarding credibility and severity of potential retaliation. The extension of conflict to outer space would further complicate the maintenance of fragile balance and equilibrium in the current global strategic arena.
The growing capability of states to attack space-based assets or conduct attacks using satellites intensifies the technological security dilemma among states, as they increasingly perceive the technological innovations of another state, especially due to dual use technologies, as a threat to their security. This perception triggers arms race in outer space and fuels strategic instability.
Space warfare has the capability to expand and push mankind towards a destructive and unwinnable war. As some functions of satellites include communication, navigation, surveillance, warning systems, and command and control systems, any disruption caused to the normal working of satellites can instill a huge impact on the target state, thus warranting for retaliation.
The United States (US), Russia and China are shifting their focus towards extending military and offensive capabilities in outer space, especially anti-satellite (ASAT) technologies, which are capable of hindering the normal functioning of satellites, disabling or disrupting communication, or completely destroying the satellite.
Recently, some leaders, notably President Trump, have emphasized the need to develop space weapons to defend the interests of the state. He announced his plan in May 2025 to develop “Golden Dome”, a defense system against space-launched missiles, including hypersonic, ballistic and cruise missiles. The proposed system will incorporate multilayered sensors and interceptors to ensure defense against missiles travelling through outer space.
Russia and China, though possessing advanced space capabilities, reached a consensus on not deploying any weapons in space. In 2024, President Putin also announced that “all members of SCO are against militarization of space”. If the US intensifies its efforts to build and deploy offensive military capabilities in outer space, it will compel China and Russia to do the same, triggering an arms race in space that may compel the European countries, India, and others to follow suit, as happened in the Cold War.
In the South Asian context, the US collaboration with India with regards to space technologies has been notable, especially the grant of Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA 1) status to New Delhi in 2018, allowing the sales of dual use technologies, including space technologies. In 2020, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) was signed between the US and India which facilitates intelligence sharing, including satellite images and other geospatial information. Such collaborations enable India to use outer space as a domain of warfare by using satellite networks to target adversaries with precision.
In 2019, India demonstrated its ability to destroy satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) by using kinetic energy anti-satellite weapons (KE-ASAT). In March 2024, India tested advanced MIRVs capabilities which can be utilized in counterspace operations. Pakistan, on the other hand, does not possess any space weapons and does not intend to develop any. Moreover, Pakistan is against space militarization and is a strong advocate for international space regulations through forums like UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). India’s increasing focus on build-up of disruptive space technologies challenges the delicate deterrence balance in South Asia by triggering security dilemma, thus heightening the risks of pre-emptive actions and regional arms race in space.
Cyber-attacks on space-based infrastructure can potentially disrupt the command-and-control systems, electric grids, and early warning systems, creating new threats and triggering the need to defend against such threats. Furthermore, the impact of space militarization on non-military satellites is also destructive because of potential hindrance in paths of satellites, creation of space debris, or blinding of satellites by jammers, lasers or microwaves, often a part of ASAT weapons.
As space warfare is no longer just a theoretical concern, with the development of various offense and defense capabilities in space, increased funding for space weaponization, and technological innovations aiming at strategic dominance, it is imperative to acknowledge the severity of implications of space militarization, and develop norms, limits and a legally binding agreement which can regulate, if not prevent, further militarization of space.
An unprecedented and unregulated extension of warfare to outer space domain can fuel conventional conflicts, cyber warfare, and trigger the stability-instability paradox. There is a need for a contemporary comprehensive arms control agreement that not only revives nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament but also incorporates space weaponization and establishes cyber and space norms to regulate emerging technologies and prevent them from becoming destructive tools of warfare. Living in an era of technological warfare, we have yet to see how the extension of warfare into the outer space domain will fully unfold. Space technologies need to be regulated, de-militarized and constrained for civilian purposes to stop them from becoming potential drivers of new conflicts. Setting the trend of space militarization, the US will trigger its geostrategic competitors China and Russia to follow, leading to an increased technological security dilemma, arms race and deterrence instability. Furthermore, India’s ambitions to weaponize space threatens the strategic stability of South Asia. Thus, space militarization has the potential to destabilize the strategic balance, trigger technological security dilemma, and initiate a new arms race, which can escalate into destructive conflicts that go beyond Earth’s surface to outer space.
Misbah Zainab is a student of MPhil International Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad. Her research interests include emerging technologies and their impact on geopolitics.
