After Indian nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan conducted its nuclear tests in response and to maintain deterrence. As a result, Pakistan celebrates May 28 as Youm-e-Takbeer every year, which signifies a vital action of protection against any Indian aggression. This has established a deterrence environment between India and Pakistan, preventing large-scale conventional war and establish strategic stability.
On 11 March 2024, India conducted the first flight test of an indigenously developed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Agni-V missile with Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology with an estimated range of over 7,000 kilometers. Though Indians claim that this development is motivated to strengthen its defense against China, its modernization of these ballistic missiles with MIRV technology seriously impacts Pakistan’s security calculus and defense.
Is India repeating history, leading the region towards instability? There is already a shift in Indian strategic thinking. India has stepped onto a path of military modernization beyond its security needs. John J. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism best explains this situation, according to which a state acquires and builds up its military power until it becomes a global or regional hegemon. New Delhi’s aspiration to become a regional hegemon is posing a threat to Pakistan’s security interests.
Scholars debate in the journal International Security that India is moving towards a nuclear counterforce strategy. Indian officials have been advancing the logic of counterforce targeting, which may contribute to the implications of India’s pursuit of nuclear superiority for coercive diplomacy vis-à-vis Pakistan. To achieve the desired offensive goals of this strategy, India has opted to modernize its missile and delivery systems and invest in Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD). This perilous strategy is an alarm for nuclear non-proliferation in the region.
India already aspires for regional dominance and global recognition by developing a huge conventional force and maintaining a large nuclear arsenal. It is also increasing the accuracy of its other missile systems and equipping them with MIRV technology.
India has tested several missiles in a very short period. The Agni-V test highlights two significant developments in India’s strategic weapons. First, it has expanded the missile’s range. Some scholars view that the said missile, which is nuclear-capable, can hit a target at an estimated range of more than 7,000 kilometers. Secondly, it has been equipped with MIRV technology. MIRV technology makes it more lethal because a single missile can carry multiple warheads. This technology is also known as hard target-kill. The addition of these missiles to the Indian nuclear inventory boosts strategic instability in the region. That would raise questions about India’s minimum deterrent doctrine. As the region lacks a crisis management framework, India’s MIRV technology would increase the risk of inadvertent or purposeful exchange of nuclear weapons in a crisis. Also, these actions are inconsistent with the Indian pledge of ‘No First Use,’ which is cosmetically employed to gain Western support. These capabilities are crucial steps towards India’s achieving counterforce targeting.
India has also invested immensely in the BMD system. It has deployed the S-400 Russian-made BMD system to bolster its defense against Pakistan. According to prominent Pakistani scholars, the strategic dilemma for Pakistan is that India has invested heavily in missile defense systems. BMDs are defensive capabilities, but, in reality, they are offensive. Acquiring these systems strengthens defense against the adversary’s missile capabilities, but also gives a notion of a false sense of security. This is because these systems do not provide complete security against adversary’s missiles. Still, they encourage the host country for the first strike and preemptive counterforce targeting.
India repeatedly destabilized South Asia by going nuclear in 1974 and 1998. In 1998, Pakistan responded as it was its security compulsion to attain a balance of power in the region. Today, it is taking one step forward towards unbalancing the region’s power equilibrium through nuclear modernization. Such Indian steps for rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal are paving the way for increasing threat perception in the region, compelling other regional states to expand their nuclear and conventional capabilities.
Once started, the spiral of nuclear expansion to increase power equilibrium would continue for years, increasing the chances of an armed conflict. Indian security policy covenant shows that India is not only growing its military nuclear armory but also believes in geopolitical leverage through nuclear weapons and extended range. As a result, we could witness Indian military modernization leading to a strategically unstable South Asia, which is in the interest of neither of the countries. Although Pakistan has always shown a restrained response to Indian designs, the onus of maintaining stability does not lie with Pakistan only. The states, seen as rational actors, must demonstrate a clear commitment to peace and stability through responsible behavior and constructive dialogue. The region must not be pushed into unnecessary military build-ups. In a nutshell, the highlighted test of Agni-V – India’s nuclear-capable ICBM with MIRV technology and extended range – is part of a historical chain of nuclear missile testing. This trend leads to instability, threatens peace, and has a detrimental effect not only on the region but also on the global security architecture. Hence answering the question that India has opted to continue 1998 episode and threatened strategic stability in South Asia seems to be a repeat of nuclear history.
Waheed Ur Rehman
Mr Muhammad Ali Baig is Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad.
