The memoir of former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Never Give an Inch: Fighting for the America I Love (2023), makes several claims about the two South Asian nuclear-armed states – Pakistan and India – in addition to details on US pivot to the Asia Pacific for strengthening security arrangements with allies.
The three claims
Mike claimed to be informed by his Indian counterpart, whose name has not been disclosed, that in response to India’s Balakot attack in 2019, Pakistan was preparing nuclear weapons for a strike and India was contemplating its own escalation. He went on to say that the US intervention prevented nuclear conflagration in South Asia. He termed India a “wild card” in the Quad and Australia and Japan two “strong legs” of the group. There is a need to comprehend and discuss the reality behind these assertions.
Examining the strength of the first one
From his first claim, readers may perceive that Pakistan was about to initiate a nuclear first strike against India. That is far from reality. The study of reliable sources suggests that, indeed, it was India preparing for qatal ki raat (a night of murder). In other words, “India resorted to nuclear brinkmanship asserting that they would attack at six places. PM Modi claimed that had Pakistan not returned the pilot, it would have been a night of massacre.”
The use of the Urdu-Gujarati cognate qatal ki/ni raat by the Indian PM Modi and his statement during Gujrat’s Patan rally on 21 April 2019 regarding Indian readiness of launching 12 missiles against Pakistan is an acknowledgment of what Vipin Narang calls India’s “splendid first strike” against Pakistan. Addressing another rally in Rajasthan, Modi threatened the use of nuclear weapons against Pakistan and said “Have we kept them (nuclear weapons) for Diwali?” PM Modi’s nuclear saber-rattling is alarming and against India’s so-called No First Use (NFU) policy. It also indicates that a nuclear war may unfold in South Asia due to the irresponsible decisions of Indian leadership.
Pompeo’s first claim shows that the US was misinformed by Indian diplomats on Pakistan’s responsible restraint. Moreover, the international community was also a victim of misinformation spread by Indian media and government officials about the Pulwama and Balakot incidents.
It is worth mentioning that the Pulwama incident in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) was viewed in Pakistan as India’s reckless strategy and continuation of its ignoble history of orchestrating false flag operations (FFOs) against Pakistan. India staged an attack against its own Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel on 14 February 2019 as a casus belli to justify a surgical strike against its nuclear neighbor Pakistan, evidently to gain domestic political mileage and retain power in the shadow of looming general elections.
On the pretext of the Pulwama incident, Indian Air Force (IAF) attempted a botched airstrike in Balakot area of Pakistan on 26 February 2019. Indian ill-conceived airstrike inside Pakistan’s territory was a violation of relevant provisions of the UN Charter and International Law. It constituted unlawful use of force against a sovereign state. The Balakot strike was an Indian attempt to find space for a limited war and create a new normal under the nuclear overhang in South Asia.
In its right of reprisal and as a part of its retaliatory doctrine of Quid Pro Quo Plus, Pakistan responded on 27 February 2019 from within its airspace. Pakistan Air Force (PAF) displayed capability and a responsible attitude by launching six airstrikes around three Indian military targets with clear intent not to cause any damage to life or infrastructure. In such a manner, Pakistan as a responsible nuclear-weapon state (NWS) demonstrated restraint and restored the strategic balance in the region by successfully retaliating against India.
Many foreign policy analysts believe that the FFO in Pulwama and the subsequent violation of Pakistan’s airspace by IAF were aimed to achieve domestic electoral gains. The voices from within India are still raising against the misuse of military power by PM Modi for domestic electoral purposes. Former Indian army officer Pravin Sawhney raised the question “What military objectives were achieved by a failed Indian airstrike at Balakot? The answer is nothing except 37.36 percent of votes for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.”
Recently, Pakistani intelligence agencies exposed another FFO of the Modi Regime on 25 January 2023, just one day before its practical execution. The staged attack was planned to be carried out by Indian Army in Poonch Sector near the Line of Control (LoC) on Indian Republic Day (26 January) to spread the propaganda of infiltration in IIOJK to the world. Not surprisingly, if not exposed, it would have again been falsely associated with Pakistan in no time.
How weak is the second claim
The second claim that the US averted nuclear war between India and Pakistan is again debatable. It was not only the US intervention but Pakistan’s Quid Pro Quo Plus response and nuclear policy of Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) that prevented the conflict from escalating to higher rungs on the escalation ladder. FSD maintains the credibility of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence at all three levels (strategic, operational, and tactical) and covers the entire threat spectrum. Pakistan’s nuclear policy denies India the space for operationalization of its destabilizing Cold Start Doctrine. Despite the existential threat from neighboring India, Pakistan has always been a responsible NWS.
About the exceptionalism devoted to India
The third claim regarding India being a “wild card” in Quad is being interpreted as an attempt at diverting attention from major strategic favors India is bestowed on by the West to contain China. The time and again exceptionalism devoted to India by the West is an open secret. New Delhi has been assigned the role of so-called net security provider in US Indo-Pacific strategy. Other notable US favors that India enjoys are the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership, Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) waiver, the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver, four Foundational Agreements, and a recently announced initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) to name but a few.
This exceptionalism for India is against the US advocated “rules-based international order.” It is inducing strategic instability which can lead to serious repercussions for regional and global peace. Former Director General of Strategic Plans Division Lt Gen Khalid Ahmed Kidwai (retired) in his keynote address on strategic stability has rightly stated that “India is being wishfully propped up by the West as a potential counterweight to China giving short shrift to strategic stability in South Asia.”
The region is under the burden of great power contestation between the US and China. The US C3 (containment, competition and confrontation) policy against China is placing Pakistan at a disadvantage. India is a beneficiary of this contestation and is playing the China card to the Western gallery for the acquisition of modern weaponry, high technology, and proliferation exceptions. This, in turn, is accelerating the arms race and disturbing strategic stability in South Asia.
Summing it up
From Pompeo’s memoir, it can be concluded that: (i) India misled its Western partner on the Balakot incident; (ii) the US administration turned a blind eye to Modi’s nuclear sabre-rattling, and (iii) the US absorption of India into almost every security arrangement to contain China is detrimental to the so-called rules-based international order the West professes to protect.
The West’s undue favors to India are undermining international non-proliferation efforts and adversely affecting strategic stability in South Asia. To maintain and restore international peace, the US-led West must avoid continuing military support and exercising exceptionalism for India. Great powers should be partners in peace, not parties in a nuclear war.
About the Author
Anwer Ali is MPhil in IR from NDU, and MSc in DSS from QAU, Islamabad.
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